Nevertheless, that’s a reservation for now, even though the pre-eminence of the same age group in the Champion Hurdle market says a fair bit about the older generations in the two-mile division currently. That leaves a trio of British-trained hopes, the word ‘hope’ used loosely. Shallwehaveonemore was beaten 26 lengths by Constitution Hill in the Tolworth but has improved a fair bit since. His best form is on decent ground so that’s a plus, and he may have been a little outpaced at Kempton last time when second in Grade 2 company. He could run quite well without challenging the podium places. If we look at market position data instead, clear favourites in Grade 1 races have just edged into profit, albeit by only £6.77 (ROI +3.6%); backing ALL runners in the top four in the betting would have yielded a profit of £55.24 (ROI +6.8%).
50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)
The 39 in the last decade which didn’t were all unplaced bar one. Indeed, horses rated 140 or below, including those without a rating, are a combined seven from 308 for a loss at SP of 185 points. None of the 238 horses sent off at 25/1 or bigger managed to win an open Grade 1 at the last ten CheltFests. Moreover, only three priced bigger than 14/1 scored, from 335 to face the starter, with this group losing 274 points at SP. Meanwhile, those priced at 14/1 or shorter won 50 races from 300 starters, and lost just two points at SP. Chacun was imperious at Christmas, value for plenty more than the official six and a half lengths.
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The one who might still be a little on the fat side is Minella Indo. 20/1 bar these, the first of which is Champ, now ten and last seen winning well in a Grade 1 hurdle. His last chase sighting was when pulling up after only six fences in the Gold Cup a year ago. Connections are publicly pointing towards this gig but I wonder if he might go t’other way in a very open looking and winnable Stayers’ Hurdle section. A test as unique as the Cheltenham Gold Cup makes it something of a specialist’s race. Best Mate famously reeled off a hat-trick of wins early in the century and, since then, both Kauto Star and Al Boum Photo have doubled up.
CHARITY BETS
Losses have been steepest in Grade 1 contests with your £1 bet returning on average 79p (loss of 21p in the £). Horses that won a Grade 1 contest LTO have scored close to one race in every four which is impressive. Backing all runners would have yielded a good profit also of over 22p in the £. Horses winning LTO in either Grade 2, 3 or Listed company have very similar strike rates, but it is Listed LTO winners who have created the best profit (£49.48 returning 41p in the £). We will examine Irish trainers versus UK trainers in more detail later, but Irish-trained clear favourites have done well.
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Last year, five of the six horses sent off at 5/4 or shorter were beaten. This year, we look set to have at least five runners priced in that same bracket. Mishaps aside, it is hard (for me, at least) to make credible cases to oppose any of the quintet.
- If the favourite falters due to stamina, Ashroe Diamond could capitalize, although the fitting of a first-time hood for a return to 2m 4f would be a slight concern.
- POLITOLOGUE Has enjoyed a fine season but was no match for Altior at Newbury recently; tough and consistent, he has place prospects.
- The main event on Day One is the Champion Hurdle, a two mile Grade 1 where the reigning champion, Honeysuckle, will bid to defend her crown.
- Willie also has Zarak The Brave, who is at least vaguely credible for the frame at a price.
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- And in the absence of his Closutton mate and reigning champ of the past two years, Energumene, he shows at odds on to register a third victory in a row for that man Mullins, who – let’s not forget – had never won the QMCC prior to 2022.
- The horse is banks king Enda Bolger’s latest McManus project, and was revitalised by a first spin over ditches, wedges and all in the PP Hogan Memorial Chase – a key prep for this – last time.
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He was being closed down by Riviere d’Etel, who had led to the last fence before blundering, but was conceding nine pounds to that five-year-old mare. Saint Sam, who had led until the second last, was a further four lengths back while the quietly fancied Haut En Couleurs was an early faller. Edwardstone tops the pile on just about every ratings compiler’s list, and he heads the betting, too. Brought down on fencing debut, that inauspicious introduction has long been forgotten as he has subsequently strung four straight chase wins together, three of them in Graded company, one a Grade 1. He jumped very well at Warwick in the Grade 2 Kingmaker last time but, prior to that, had put in the odd clumsy one. With a versatile run style and the best form in the book, he has a very obvious chance to add to trainer Alan King’s two previous Arkle scores.
Patrick Mullins
Fast, frantic, furious, frenetic, ferocious and other adjectives beginning with ‘f’. Note that neither Gaelic Warrior nor Milldam have raced in UK or Ireland to this point. Their French form suggests both will be waited with to varying degrees.
Ayr Gold Cup Trends
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- A maximum field of 24 horses are set to compete in this year’s renewal.
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- Stablemate Winter Fog has been hit hard by the handicapper after an easy win on stable debut last time but is not without place appeal as a lightly raced type, despite being a nine-year-old.
- The leftfield option is First Flow, who was exhilarating at Ascot last time.
Sent off 10/3 favourite for the November edition, he was never put into the race; but he did run a little better in the October variant, finishing a place and four lengths behind Minella Indo. This has obviously been the Bolts Up Daily plan all season but I’m not at all sure he can bring his A game when water wings are needed. There is little doubt in anyone’s mind that, prior to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, Ballyburn brings the best novice form.
How to quantify trainer form pre-Cheltenham?
As an eight-year-old he’s oodles of upside in this sphere and is clearly with the right man. Venetia Williams’ wildly experienced novice, Royale Pagaille, looks to have stamina as his strong suit. I was so taken with his outright demolition of a solid Graded handicap field in the G2 Peter Marsh at Haydock that I backed him for the Gold Cup. “She’s running in the Champion Hurdle”, all my friends tell me. But she’s the reigning champ in this race and the drying ground will make the two mile Champion more of a speed test than this two and a half mile contest.
Monday 22 April’s Horse Racing Results
The only one really fitting the bill from a price perspective is Tanganyika who is second reserve. He is quite interesting on his run behind subsequent Grade Kyrov and Golden Son in France. Now with Venetia Williams, Tanganyika was beaten eight and a half lengths in that Auteuil race. Kyrov is currently rated 75kg (165), Golden Son 71 (156) and Tanganyika’s mark in France is 61.5 (135). Here, he has just 121, a full stone below his French rating.
Tips & Insights
You can also see the odds currently on offer and some of the ones that have been offered previously. Always keep an eye on any new sites that might be launching, as they can truly offer you some great betting experiences. However, you also need to make sure that you are getting good odds alongside that. Cross-referencing with some of the more well-established bookies will help to confirm that you are indeed getting a good deal for your money’s worth. Never opt for poor odds simply because you have a deal to use – there is always going to be something better out there. Those who are new to the world of horse racing might find that there is a lot of terminology that gets thrown about here.
- As you can see, the win percentage / strike rate peaked in 2016 at 33.33%, whereas 2010, 2014 and 2017 saw percentages dip under half that figure.
- Looking for correlation is difficult in what is, granted, a crowded table.
- The four miler is not quite the race it was, and not just because it’s only three miles and six furlongs in distance these days.
- I’ve always been a big believer that it’s the best horse who wins the race and not necessarily the best trainer or jockey, but that’s a debate that continues to run.
- All of the last 14 winners were aged 6-8yo (10/13 were 7yo’s).
- For a donation of £25 you will get the exclusive Cheltenham preview, horses to follow direct from the Lambourn trainers plus membership for the period 11th to 19th March.
- It is hardly a surprise that no age group was profitable to back blind but we can see from the colour coding the folly (or boldness, if you prefer) of siding with a veteran.
- In the following season he was bested three times by Teahupoo at two mile trips before having a long (nearly two years) spell on the sidelines.
- With a finger on the pulse of races across the world, punters can rely on Get Your Tips Out to deliver timely and in-depth analysis of not just mainstream events but also niche races that can be hidden gems for expert bettors.
York Tips
I’m not keen on backing Appreciate It at around 6/4 in the ‘without’ market either, nor the untested in Grade 1 or on fast ground Teahupoo, or any of his five-year-old contemporaries. No, if I was having a swipe right now, it might be Not So Sleepy without Honeysuckle at 33/1+ each way. He was 5th last year at 125/1 outright, and has dead heated with Epatante in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth this season. It looks like this year’s Champion Hurdle may be run at an even to quick tempo, with both Appreciate It and Teahupoo generally going forward. However, both took a lead on their most recent starts so perhaps we’ll be erring towards just an even gallop, in which case all should be able to run their races. I also didn’t mention Tommy’s Oscar in that earlier preview, Mrs Ann Hamilton’s flag bearer well worthy of the name check having waltzed away with the Haydock Champion Hurdle trial shortly after publication.
- Found A Fifty has led in each of his four chase spins and will face pace contention here; that might compromise his chance.
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- On the other hand, many of Willie Mullins’s runners at Cheltenham over the years have worn earplugs which have not been declared, so the figures only tell part of the story.
- On firm ground, we see a similar leap from maiden on that terrain to those with one or two wins.
- If you have interests in other areas of sports betting, you should definitely consider finding a site that is able to offer several types of betting.
- There are horse racing tips all over the internet to help you find a good deal and get to grips with some of the many unusual phrases that you will find here.
There are so many different sites out there that can offer great odds, you just need to track them down. If you have interests in other areas of sports betting, you should definitely consider finding a site that is able to offer several types of betting. Where you find football bets, you also frequently find horse racing wagers, as the two are the most popular sports in the UK. Dating back centuries, horseracing has been one of the iconic landmarks of UK culture. And together with the races of course comes the horserace betting which has forever been one of the ways for the horseracing crowds and enthusiast to place bets on their favourite horse or jockey and become part of the great spectacle.
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So we can get down to business, the business of this post being to review current trainer form for the big guns heading into Cheltenham Festival 2021. A Plus Tard has been exposed a couple of times in Festival G1 company now and is short enough for all that he’s hugely talented. Galvin may still be improving but 5/1 readily acknowledges that.
- Her recent form is consistent and ties in with the likes of Burning Victory but she’s won only once from five starts over hurdles since her maiden score.
- Willie Mullins naturally saddles a phalanx of blue bloods, and his first choice normally wins.
- Thirdly, cheekpieces have been more about futility than utility outside of handicap chases.
- Fast, frantic, furious, frenetic, ferocious and other adjectives beginning with ‘f’.
- Third of the four runners during the early stages, Rebel’s Romance challenged entering the final quarter mile and lengthened up the hill to beat stablemate Kemari by a convincing three and three-quarter lengths.
- Will prove to be a highly informative race for the future.
Northfields Handicap Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Irish Champions Weekend)
One final thing I would urge you to do is to check the Racing Post Ratings, which are usually found to the left-hand side of the odds. These represent the views of Racing Post experts and, generally speaking, the higher the rating, the better the horse’s chance. Quality of racing, beauty, atmosphere and history all play an important part in determining just how good a racecourse is, and the following made our top ten list . The jockey with the most winners in each championship will take the title. The jump jockeys’ championship runs for the majority of the year, with just a one-week break.
Todays Betting Stats
And, from a value perspective, especially if that horse is returning to optimal conditions today having recently run under less suitable criteria. A facilitator is merely something that greases the wheels, smooths the process, or saves time. In terms of horse racing betting, it’s usually either the aforementioned trusted human advisor or, for fans – like me – of the puzzle, it’s a website form resource like the one found elsewhere on these virtual pages. There’s plenty of content about how to use the geegeez toolkit elsewhere – try this link for a run down, so in this post I want to consider the other term, differentiators. It all started with a new superstar in the name of Bob Olinger, who absolutely bolted up in the Ballymore novices hurdle to become the first of the Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Winners. He was heavily supported in the market all morning, and my Ante Post Nap selection for the festival advised at 4/1 at the time of posting.
Shishkin is now unbeaten in seven completed starts, having fallen on his hurdling debut. The main lesson of history is “don’t believe the hype”, a message that resonates far beyond Festival jollies but which was poignantly reprised twelve months ago when, of the six favourites sent off at 5/4 or shorter, five were beaten. It works as an index where, like IV, 1.00 is a par figure and better or worse than 1.00 is a degree of good or bad respectively. It’s calculation requires a little unpacking and, rather than do that here, you’re encouraged to look at this racing metrics article where I explain and exemplify each of IV, A/E and PRB in more detail. The key here is that north of 1.00 is good, south of 1.00 not so much. Happily, geegeez.co.uk publishes a few metrics that cut through the thorny thicket of quantifying these data, namely Impact Value, Percentage of Rivals Beaten, and Actual vs Expected.
Stablemate Winter Fog has been hit hard by the handicapper after an easy win on stable debut last time but is not without place appeal as a lightly raced type, despite being a nine-year-old. He ran fourth in last season’s Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle so is likely to be finishing strongly at this easier distance. The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +52.50 is when runners had 1 place in the past 30 days. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 5 career wins in Flat (AW) races, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-71. The leading jockey in the Ayr Gold Cup over the last 20 renewals is Frankie Dettori who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Jimmy Styles (2009) and Redford (2010). Two jockeys have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Ayr Gold Cup, Paul Mulrennan has ridden 13 runners to the race without recording any wins whilst David Allan has ridden 12 without a winner.